Russia’s industrial output to rise 2.5% in 2018, 2.1% in 2019

MOSCOW, Jul 4 (PRIME) -- Russia’s industrial output will rise 2.5% in 2018, decrease to 2.1% in 2020, and speed up later, the Economic Development Ministry said in a report on Wednesday.

The authority expects the industrial output to grow 2.6% in 2020, 2.9% in 2021, 3.2% in 2022, 3.3% in 2023, and 3.4% in 2024.

Inflation will stand at 3.1% in 2018, accelerate to 4.3% in 2019, and slow down to 3.8% in 2020 which is broadly in line with the central bank’s target of 4%.

The planned increase of value added tax (VAT) to 20% from 18% will result in a temporary rise in prices with a share of 1.3 percentage points in the inflation rate.

The ministry reiterated that gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected at 1.9% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019.

The average ruble to U.S. dollar rate is projected to stay at the current level of 60.8 rubles per dollar until the end of 2018, at 63–64 rubles per dollar in 2019–2020, and 66.3 rubles per dollar by 2022.

Oil production will rise 0.5% to 549 million tonnes in 2018 on the back of OPEC+’s decision to boost oil output, to 560 million tonnes in 2020–2021, and gradually fall to 555 million tonnes by 2024.

The average price of the Urals oil blend, Russia’s key export, will come to U.S. $69.3 per barrel in 2018, and then will decline to $63.4 per barrel in 2019, $59.7 per barrel in 2020, and $53.5 per barrel in 2024.

The deficit on the local labor market will fade out with unemployment remaining at 4.8% in 2018–2020 and falling later on.

Fixed capital investment will grow 3.5% in 2018, 3.1% in 2019, and 7.6% in 2020.

The ministry also said that the effect of new sanctions against 38 Russian tycoons, officials and companies slapped in April has exhausted.

(63.2194 rubles – U.S. $1)

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